Until July 2008, dead cat bouncing markets ? April 2008 conclusion: We expect a stock market crash (sudden 20 % loss in value or more over a short period), but not within the next 5 or 6 months. Inflation and the Oil Price are threatening clouds for the World economy
Update 1 Juli 2008: Het was feitelijk een dramatisch eerste halfjaar voor de beurzen, dus onze prognose ( daling 15 tot 20% ) voor de tweede helft van 2008 blijft hetzelfde. Verdere daling van de onroerend goed prijzen, een dalend consumenten vertrouwen, slechtere bedrijfsresultaten in het derde kwartaal, kredietperikelen internationaal, een hogere rente, verder stijgende olieprijzen, en een gierend oplopende inflatie.
"History argues that credit constraints will affect all forms of capital investment," (Citigroup's chief equity strategist Tobias Levkovich)
Steve Fraser reports in his book “Wall Street: America’s Dream Palace,” “real estate prices collapsed, credit dried up, house building stopped.”
Beurskrach, www.beurskrach.com , news and opinions about the Stock Markets and the upcoming stock-market crash. Beurskrach, is een nieuwe site en gaat over de ontwikkelingen op de internationale effectenbeurzen en de komende krach. De Beurskrach-Indicator is naar aanleiding van de escalerende bank- en hypotheek crisis in de VS gestegen tot 68%.
Quoteweb - Actuele Marktdata De internationale beurzen overzichtelijk en inzichtelijk gemaakt Realtime koersen, analyses, signaallijsten, columns, doorbraken, historische koersen en beleggingsnieuws voor de belangrijkste internationale beurzen, aandelen, indices, valuta's en trackers.
"Some humans would do almost anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere with a sign on it saying ‘End of the World Switch, Please Do Not Touch’ the paint wouldn’t have time to dry." - Terry Pratchett
Eurozone inflation at record 3.7% Inflation in the eurozone has a climbed to a record level amid higher food and fuel costs, official figures show. The annual rate of inflation in the 15 state zone hit 3.7% in May, according to the Eurostat statistical office. The figure is the highest since 1996, when Eurostat started using the current methodology for calculating inflation. There are concerns that price growth will keep accelerating, and the European Central Bank warned it will raise interest rates to slow inflation.
Time for comrade Paulson to pull the plug on the Fannie and Freddie charade (FT's William Butler) Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adequately capitalised, as asserted recently by US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and their regulator Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Director James B. Lockhart III? The answer is: obviously not, if these two government-sponsored enterprises of the US federal government had to make a living on normal private commercial terms. Obviously not if they were subject to the market discipline preached by Paulson and Bernanke, but not practiced when it comes to large financial institutions perceived as systemically important (too large or too interconnected to fail) or too politically sensitive to fail. more...
Business U.S. Weighs Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants By STEPHEN LABATON and STEVEN R. WEISMAN Published: July 11, 2008 Under the plan, shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be worth little or nothing, and any losses on mortgages they own or guarantee would be paid by taxpayers.
Caveat investor Commentary: Consumers more at risk from financial scams as stocks slump By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch - Last update: 4:26 p.m. EDT June 25, 2008 BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Summertime, and the scamming is easy. The North American Securities Administrators Association issued a warning last week about summer scams, suggesting that investors protect themselves against "hot energy-related tips, speculative real estate promotions, unsolicited invitations from new online 'friends,' and complex, opaque investment products that fail to offer clear disclosures of their risks and costs." What the group failed to say -- but clearly implied -- is that the nauseating ride of the stock market and the flagging confidence of investors has made consumers more vulnerable to financial scams than at any time in memory.
Market Scan - Sotheby's Is All Ask And No Bid Maurna Desmond, 05.09.08, 9:43 AM ET Investors didn't bang a gavel when Sotheby's blurted out its bad news, but they did start selling the company's stock. Sotheby's tumbled Friday after it disappointed Wall Street by losing money in its first quarter. The art auction house cited a fall in single owner sales and lower commission margins. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, estimated earnings of 10 cents per share on sales of $141.4 million. The New York-based firm plunged 7.8%, or $2.16, to $25.31, in morning trading. The company reported a loss of $12.4 million, or 19 cents per share, compared with a profit of $24.3 million, or 37 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Sales fell 12.0%, to $129.3 million, from $147.4 million in the first quarter of 2007.
Business Low Spending Is Taking Toll on Economy By PETER S. GOODMAN - Published: May 1, 2008 Beleaguered American consumers appear to have succumbed to the pressures of falling home prices and shrinking paychecks.
